Don't expect a decision soon

If recent history is any indication, we have quite a while to wait and ponder the veepstakes for both parties. The Democrats convene in Denver on August 25th and the Republicans hold their convention on September 1st in Minneapolis. Let's take a look at the last handful of VP candidates, along with the approximate day they were announced and (in parenthesis) the first date of their party's convention that year.

2004: Kerry announces Edwards on July 6 (July 26)
2000: Bush announces Cheney on July 25 (July 31)
2000: Gore announces Lieberman on August 8 (August 14)
1996: Dole announces Kemp on August 11 (August 12)
1992: Clinton announces Gore on July 9 (July 13)
1988: Bush announces Quayle on August 16 (August 15)
1988: Dukakis announces Bentsen on July 12 (July 18)
1984: Mondale announces Ferraro on July 12 (July 16)

Doing some quick math, that's an average of 6 days before the convention. Thus, should we expect a Democratic veep to be unveiled about August 19th and a Republican veep about August 26th? Well, nothing's certain, but here are a few thoughts ...

The GOP

If Clinton and Obama go down to the proverbial wire, and McCain eventually begins to suffer from a lack of news in say, June and July, it's possible that he may do the "maverick" thing and pick his veep early. That would certainly generate some (he'd hope) positive press, especially if the Democrats start the name calling again.

And beyond that ... even though all the talk is now about him focusing on a conservative candidate who is strong in econonic matters, maybe he'd stay away from the more frequently mentioned names to cause more of a splash and draw attention from the potentially fascinating prospect of a brokered Democratic Convention. Maybe he'll go for a female or minority candidate, to dampen the excitement of a Democratic ticket that features one or both of those aspects. Perhaps Carly Fiorina, the former chairwoma of Hewlett-Packard? Or Christine Todd Whitman, former NJ governor? I've even heard JC Watts' name mentioned, the popular former congressman from Oklahoma. Sarah Palin, the attractive, young Republican governor of Alaska would also make an interesting choice.

The Dems

The Clinton-Obama race is so tight, it's impossible to say how this will affect the timing. If the two candidate are still scrapping for the nomination in June, we could very well go into Denver not knowing who the nominee will be. In that sort of scenario, we'd have to wait and figure out if the loser would be granted the veep position as a consolation prize, or if it would be someone entirely different. Both candidates would have to have their top choices secretly vetted out by then, though, in case they had the opportunity to make that decision with little time left at the convention.

Another intriguing scenario would be for one of the candidates to announce their veep pick before the convention. This could certainly backfire, but in a close race, maybe the choice of a popular and electrifying veep candidate would be enough to draw enough superdelegates over to one candidate's side. But again, this would be a risky move, and it would take a lot of chutzpah.