Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton?

In opening ...

Welcome to Veepstakes! This blog will follow the fascinating speculation on one of America's oddest contests. One that could potentially propel an unknown into a position a heartbeat from the presidency. One that is a mystery to almost everyone. One that you can't run for. And in fact, one that, if you so much as state that you are interested in it, you're practically disqualified from consideration.

I plan to present my opinions along with links to what other others are saying about both the Democratic and Republican hopefuls. Hopefully, you readers will share your thoughts, rebuttals, perspectives and hopes. And here, on the eve of Super Tuesday, I think it's an appropriate time to start this fascinating conversation. Thanks for reading.


The Hillary and Obama question

There's a good chance that tomorrow's contests will not propel either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama into an unsurmountable lead for the Democratic nomination. But voters will eventually settle on one or the other, and that begs the question: If Hillary wins the nomination, would she consider Obama as her veep? And if Obama wins, would he consider Hillary?

After some of the things that have happened (especially before this somewhat peaceful week) during this campaign, it may be hard to imagine the two of them together on a Democratic ticket this Fall. But to those who are new to the veepstakes, a look to history may be in order. Even in somewhat recent history, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush had a sometimes contentious 1980 primary campaign, and John Kerry and John Edwards had their moments in 2004. Making up in the name of party unity is not uncommon.

This year presents an interesting situation on the Democratic side among the frontrunners. At this stage, it appears that a victorious Hillary Clinton might need Barack Obama on her ticket more than he would need her, should he be the primary season's victor.

Particularly if John McCain gets the Republican nod, Hillary might need Obama, if she wins the Democratic nod. McCain could attract a large percentage of the independent-leaning voters, and there may be pressure on Hillary to counter this by infusing her general campaign with the energy and passion that the Kennedyesque Obama (and his supporters) would bring. Certainly, she has other interesting options, such as retired General Wesley Clark, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, Ohio governor Ted Strickland, former Virginia governor Mark Warner, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack and others. (We'll discuss these other options in future posts.)

But on the flip side of the coin, what if Obama wins the Democratic nomination? Would there be any pressure -- internal or external -- for him to select Hillary as his vice president? It's harder to see such a scenario. For one thing, my gut feeling is that Hillary would decline such an offer, even if it were made. And if the underdog Obama manages to surpass Clinton in the primary, it's likely that he would prefer to put her behind him and stay away from the massive attacks that the Republicans would level at her as his veep. The primary job of any V.P. is to do no harm, and this may not be Hillary's strong suit.

Last Fall, Roger Simon of Politico.com (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0907/6005.html) wrote that Hillary wouldn't pick Obama, because he might overshadow her and he might be uncontrollable. While I agree with his postulation that these are two unbreakable rules for selecting a veep, it seems more appropo to describe a potential Obama/Clinton ticket.

Others claim that (http://countenance.wordpress.com/2007/01/04/who-will-be-hillarys-running-mate/) Obama would mostly help with the African-American vote, which the Clintons would normally gobble up anyways. But I think that's shortsighted, as Obama's shown that he can attract votes from all sorts of ethnic groups, like whites in Iowa and N.H. and Latinos in Nevada.

And, interestingly, George Stephanopoulos and others are calling either combination a dream ticket now: http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/brent-baker/2008/02/01/abc-champions-clinton-obama-or-obama-clinton-dream-ticket

A recent Bloomberg poll (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aFyomYmSL6To&refer=home) had 60% of both candidates' supporters saying that if their candidate wins, they want him/her to pick the other as veep.

Your thoughts?